Sunday Standard Inflation explodes into double digits Botswana’s inflation rate surged into double digits in April, delivering a sharp cost-of-living shock that could complicate the Bank of Botswana’s policy path in the months ahead. …
Diamond slump continues to hamper Botswana's economic growth
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·Botswana Sunday Standard
Sunday Standard BoB warns fiscal strain could squeeze private sector Botswana’s worsening fiscal position is emerging as a growing threat to economic recovery, with the Bank of Botswana warning that rising government borrowing could drain liquidity from the financial system and s …
… The Bank of Botswana says weak global demand for diamonds, shifting consumer preferences and slow progress in economic diversification continue to weigh heavily on growth, exposing the country’s enduring dependence on its most important export. …
… Matsheka pointed to Mogae’s extensive experience as a key factor in his governance style; his tenure included roles at the International Monetary Fund, the Bank of Botswana, and the Ministry of Finance. …
… Data cited in the Bank of Botswana’s April 2026 Monetary Policy Report shows the average price of residential properties sold fell 9.9 percent quarter-on-quarter to P888,055 in the third quarter of 2025, driven by declines in Greater Gaborone, Francistown and Selebi-Phikwe. …
… His career spanned the Ministry of Finance and Development Planning as the first cohort of Economics graduates from abroad; thereafter, a Directorship role at the International Monetary Fund, followed by appointment as the first local Governor of the Bank of Botswana, replacing a …
… From a young Motswana sent abroad for world-class education in the final years before independence, he rose steadily: planner in the Ministry of Finance and Development Planning, Permanent Secretary, IMF stint in Washington DC, Governor of the Bank of Botswana, Permanent Secretar …
… The Bank of Botswana’s Monetary Policy Committee forecasts inflation to rise from an average of 4.1 percent in the first quarter to 9.0 percent in the second quarter. …
… Reflecting these pressures, the Bank of Botswana’s Monetary Policy Committee recently raised the Monetary Policy Rate by 200 basis points, from 3.5 percent to 5.5 percent. …
… He speaking during a courtesy call by the Bank of Botswana Governor, Mr Lesego Moseki, noting that people who voted for change wanted to see action in terms of law reform, policy reform, representation and economic transformation, among others. …
The Bank of Botswana has warned that postponements in rolling out the Botswana Economic Transformation Programme risk undermining the country's economic recovery and prolonging growth challenges from the past two years.
Why it matters
Bank of Botswana's warning that BETP delays jeopardize recovery addresses an urgent threat to the country's economic stabilization.
The Bank of Botswana has warned that postponements in rolling out the Botswana Economic Transformation Programme risk undermining the country's economic recovery and prolonging growth challenges from the past two years.
Botswana's economy is expected to return to growth this year after two consecutive years of contraction, with the Bank of Botswana projecting recovery driven by improving mining activity and continued expansion in non-mining sectors.
The Bank of Botswana has warned that the country must urgently rebuild its foreign exchange reserves after a prolonged downturn in the diamond industry exposed Botswana's vulnerability to external shocks.
Bank of Botswana Governor Lesego Moseki has warned that Botswana must accelerate economic reforms rather than wait for diamond market recovery, stating that the prolonged downturn has exposed structural weaknesses in the economy.
The Bank of Botswana substantially increased its cash holdings in 2025, prioritising liquidity management as investment gains and foreign-exchange trading profits helped offset a modest decline in annual earnings.
Botswana is working with the UN Development Programme to strengthen its capacity to engage with international credit rating agencies following downgrades by Moody's and S&P's, which remain in the investment category. The Accountant General warned that economic challenges could lead to further downgrades if not addressed, and the Bank of Botswana flagged a high risk of downgrade in third-quarter reviews if agreed measures are not implemented.
Botswana's diamond sales topped P9 billion in the first quarter of 2026, with the government collecting over P4 billion from diamond royalties and dividends during the period. Foreign exchange reserves currently sit at approximately P58 billion.
The Bank of Botswana Governor presented the bank's 2025 Annual Report during an economic briefing to cabinet in Gaborone, detailing performance outcomes, mandate, and future economic outlook while emphasizing public education in driving economic understanding.
The Directorate of Public Prosecutions director has stated there is no evidence in the P100 billion 'Butterfly' case and called for the matter to be concluded, noting that no physical docket was found in the DPP office despite former president Seretse Khama Ian Khama's perjury complaint.
The Bank of Botswana has held its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 5.5 percent, indicating that the fight against inflation continues as the economy contends with effects of the diamond market downturn.
Botswana's foreign reserves rose sharply in April as government significantly reduced its temporary advance from the Bank of Botswana, with improvements attributed to inflows from SACU receipts, diamond revenues, and easing cash pressures from public spending.
The Finance Ministry reported a budget deficit of P11.2 billion for the first 11 months of the 2025/2026 fiscal year, an improvement from the P14.7 billion deficit recorded during the same period the previous year, according to latest Botswana Economic and Financial Statistics from the Bank of Botswana.
Botswana's fiscal savings account has staged a remarkable recovery after months of decline, with fresh Bank of Botswana figures showing a sharp rebound in the Government Investment Account (GIA) during March.
Botswana's nine commercial banks posted combined net profit of P851.5 million in the first quarter of 2026, down 13.8 percent from P988.1 million in Q1 2025, as rising funding costs and credit risk pressures weighed on earnings.
Botswana's foreign reserves improved from P55.3 billion in February to P56 billion in March, with the Pula Fund reaching P29.1 billion and the Government Investment Account at P9.1 billion, driven by factors including diamond earnings and hard currency-denominated debt.
UK research firm Business Monitor International has warned that Botswana's banking sector faces escalating challenges from weak macroeconomic growth, tighter monetary policy, and rising macro-fiscal risks, which could hinder performance and restrict balance sheet growth, liquidity, and profitability. The firm projects real GDP growth of 1.5 percent this year, following a 0.7 percent contraction in 2025, citing weak demand for exports and persistent uncertainty in the diamond sector.
Businesses in Botswana view government spending as a major constraint on operations, citing fiscal strain, weaker government spending, and rising costs as economic headwinds, according to a Bank of Botswana survey.
Researchers at the Bank of Botswana warn that labour market conditions have likely deteriorated further after two consecutive years of economic contraction, with modest employment gains in early 2024 expected to have been wiped out by private sector weakness. The prolonged downturn in the diamond industry, which remains central to Botswana's economy, is spilling over into the broader labour market.
The Bank of Botswana's Business Expectations Survey shows firms broadly pessimistic about trading conditions, with economic output expected to grow only 1.7 percent in 2026, a rebound from 0.7 percent contraction in 2025. Weak government spending, exchange rate pressures, and rising input costs constrain confidence, though inflation expectations remain anchored within the central bank's 3 to 6 percent target range.
Job creation in Botswana is expected to remain challenging due to weak economic activity driven by depressed diamond markets and sluggish private sector profitability, according to Bank of Botswana data.
Credit growth in Botswana has been under pressure in the last two years due to the diamond downturn, with Bank of Botswana figures showing credit growth at 8.5 percent in September, falling to 2.5 percent in January before a marginal increase in February. Commercial banks' collective profits declined by about nine percent to P3.79 billion last year, with provisions for bad debts rising fourfold.
Botswana's annual inflation accelerated to 10.3 percent in April, up from 4.2 percent in March, marking one of the steepest month-on-month jumps in recent years and creating a sharp cost-of-living shock that could affect the Bank of Botswana's policy decisions.
The Bank of Botswana has warned that worsening fiscal position and rising government borrowing could drain liquidity from the financial system and squeeze credit to businesses, amid weak growth, rising inflation, and an expanding government financing gap.
The Bank of Botswana attributes the country's weak economic growth to weak global demand for diamonds, shifting consumer preferences, and slow progress in economic diversification, underscoring Botswana's dependence on diamond exports.
At a University of Botswana memorial service for former president Festus Mogae, speakers including David Magang and Dr. Nasha praised his 1998–2008 tenure for integrity, discipline, and sound public finances, contrasting his governance with perceived declines in standards since his departure.
Botswana's residential property market lost momentum in 2025, with average residential property prices falling 9.9 percent quarter-on-quarter to P888,055 in the third quarter of 2025, according to Bank of Botswana data. The decline, driven by falls in Greater Gaborone, Francistown and Selebi-Phikwe, reflects a growing divide between resilient affordable housing demand and weaker demand for higher-end homes.
An article chronicles the late former president Festus Mogae's most prominent economic policy decisions throughout his career, from his studies in Development Economics at Oxford and Sussex universities through roles at the Ministry of Finance, the International Monetary Fund, and the Bank of Botswana, to his eventual presidency.
Charles Tibone, a longtime business associate of the late former president Festus Mogae, recounted that Mogae was a conservative economist who carefully assessed risk, picked ventures deliberately in listed businesses subject to governance scrutiny, and advised young entrepreneurs to prioritise steady, sustainable outcomes over high-risk ventures.
Botswana's economic growth is expected to slow in 2026 as inflation climbs from 3.9 percent in late 2025 to a forecast average of 8.7 percent for the year, driven by fuel price hikes, transport fare increases, and rising medical aid premiums. The Bank of Botswana projects inflation will peak at 11.1 percent in the third quarter, threatening household incomes and consumer-dependent sectors including wholesale, retail, and financial services.
Commercial bank arrears steadied to P6.6 billion in February after spiking earlier, with the majority of loans now over 180 days old; collective after-tax profits for January and February fell 24% year-on-year to P517.3 million.